You are a healthcare operations analyst building a surgical capacity and scheduling model using facility constraints, referral data, conversion rates, and operational performance metrics.
Objective:
Determine realistic OR throughput, required clinic volume, and scheduling capacity under bay, staffing, and time constraints. Clearly distinguish between current-state capacity and future-state expansion scenarios.
## Facility constraints
Use the following operating parameters:
* Two OR rooms are available, with one OR currently in use.
* Operating schedule: 4–5 days per week, with Friday optional.
* Six patient bays available per day, except Wednesday, which has four bays.
* Each patient occupies a bay for the full care cycle:
* 90 minutes pre-op.
* OR time.
* Recovery time.
* Average OR time: 44 minutes per case, including turnover.
* Recovery time: 27 minutes.
* Operating hours: 480 minutes per day.
## Historical baseline (current 1 OR model)
Use the following historical weekly case volumes:
* Monday: 7 cases (OBL).
* Tuesday: 14 cases (OBL).
* Wednesday: 9 cases (ASC).
* Thursday: 14 cases (ASC).
* Friday: 7 cases (OBL follow-up only).
## Capacity rules
Do not estimate two-OR capacity using simple doubling.
Use the bay constraint formula:
For six-bay operating days:
Capacity = FLOOR((6 × 480) ÷ (90 + OR time + recovery time))
For four-bay operating days:
Capacity = FLOOR((4 × 480) ÷ (90 + OR time + recovery time))
Calculate:
* Maximum cases per operating day.
* Weekly capacity for one OR.
* Weekly capacity for two ORs.
* Four-day operating scenario.
* Five-day operating scenario.
## Conversion inputs
Use the following conversion metrics:
* Order-to-OR conversion: 78.7%.
* New Patient visit-to-order conversion: 34.1%.
* Follow-Up visit-to-order conversion: 10.6%.
* Follow-Up conversion scenario toggle: model improvement up to 30%.
* Referral-to-New Patient conversion: 70.3%.
* Staging multiplier: 1.29x.
Current operational inputs:
* Current OR orders per week: 20.
* Follow-Up visits per week: 77.
## Referral data
Analyze monthly referral data from January through March 2026, including:
* Monthly referrals.
* Monthly scheduled volume.
* Non-referral sources: approximately 36 per month.
* Referral share: approximately 74%.
Analyze internal referrals, including:
* Monthly internal referral order rates.
* Monthly internal referral scheduling rates.
* Category mix, including:
* Pain.
* Interventional Radiology (IR).
* Cardiology.
* Vein.
* Other categories.
Evaluate the impact of internal referral volume on the staging multiplier, including a potential increase from 1.35x to 1.40x.
## Cancellation and no-show analysis
Analyze:
* OBL/OR cancellation and no-show rates.
* New Patient cancellation and no-show rates.
* Follow-Up cancellation and no-show rates.
* Monthly trends from January through March 2026.
Compare against targets:
* OBL: 8%.
* New Patient: 10%.
* Follow-Up: 5%.
## Model outputs
Generate the following sections:
## Section 1: OR Capacity
Provide:
* One OR versus two OR weekly capacity.
* Four-day versus five-day operating scenarios.
* Bay-constrained maximum cases per day.
* Weekly case capacity.
* Comparison of current utilization versus available capacity.
## Section 2: Demand Cascade
Calculate the required upstream demand needed to support OR volume.
Show:
* Required OR cases.
* Required orders.
* Required clinic visits.
Separate contribution from:
* New Patient visits.
* Follow-Up visits.
Output:
* Total required clinic visits per week.
* Clinic volume required to support projected OR demand.
## Section 3: Referral Requirements
Calculate:
* Monthly referral demand required.
* Required referral volume to support OR capacity.
* Gap between required and current referral volume.
* Impact of referral conversion changes on demand requirements.
## Section 4: Internal Referral Impact
Evaluate:
* Contribution of internal referral pipelines.
* Impact of internal referral growth on staging multiplier.
* Effect on OR demand and scheduling requirements.
* Potential improvement opportunities by referral category.
## Section 5: Capacity vs. Demand Gap
Compare:
* Current OR volume versus required OR volume.
* Current clinic volume versus required clinic volume.
* Available capacity versus projected demand.
Identify the primary bottleneck:
* OR availability.
* Bay capacity.
* Referral volume.
* Clinic conversion.
* Order conversion.
* Cancellation/no-show rates.
## Section 6: Scheduling and Cancellation Impact
Evaluate:
* Actual scheduled volume compared with required scheduled volume.
* Additional scheduling needed after applying cancellation and no-show rates.
* Operational risk by service line.
Rules:
* Use formulas and provided inputs only. Do not introduce unsupported assumptions.
* Clearly separate one-OR and two-OR scenarios.
* Highlight limiting constraints, including bay capacity, referral volume, conversion rates, and cancellation rates.
* Keep outputs structured, quantitative, and decision-oriented.